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17/2/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 10th. February.

Randwick: Track Good

R1 $65,000 Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Striking Victory
Result: first

Starting price: $2.45
Top fluctuation: $2.45
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Tye Angland
Trainer: Gerald Ryan


Caulfield - C. F. Orr Stakes Day
Track Good

R1 $56,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Rubiscent
Result: third
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Dane Empire
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.90
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Brian Jenkins

R2 $56,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Mistake Creek
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.90
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Wily Carol
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.90
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Mick Price

R3 $100,000 3YO. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Haradasun
Result: first

Starting price: $1.35
Top fluctuation: $1.35
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Tony Vasil

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding horse racing betting tips
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick & Caulfield
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 10/2/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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