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24/9/2004 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from last Saturday, September 18.

Rosehill: Track Good
R3 $100,000 3YO and upward. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Taikun
Result: first
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Bart Cummings

Eagle Farm: Track Good
R1 $24,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Huddle
Result: second
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Todd Pannell
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Asimba
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Paul Hammersley
Trainer: Barry Baldwin

Morphettville: Track Good
R1 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Fight Sars
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $4.50
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Fraar Noon
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Dale Missen
Trainer: David Noonan

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing handicapping betting tips
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Sandown Hillside betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/9/2004
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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