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25/6/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, June 18.

Sandown Lakeside: Track Slow

R1 $40,000 3YO. Open.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Emlozza
Result: second
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Tony Noonan
Winner: Classiconi
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Noel Callow
Trainer: Shane Fliedner

Cheltenham: Track Slow

R1 $22,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Dinkum Star
Result: first

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Joe Bowditch
Trainer: Don Magick

R4 $26,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2427 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Oakwood
Result: first

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: David Balfour

This edition of Punt to Win:
How to make money betting trifectas
Get those betting odds
True favourites betting system
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track: Rosehill and Sandown Lakeside
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 18/6/2005
Punt to Win index

Betting packages

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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