25/7/2003 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, July 19.

Rosehill: Track Good
R2 $50,000 3YO Colts & upward. Open. Handicap
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Domine
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 1.5 lengths
Starting price: $2.10
Top fluctation: $2.40
Tote dividends' range: $2.20 - $2.40
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: John Hawkes

Eagle Farm: Track Good
R2 $28,000 Open. Handicap
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Madison
Result: second
Winning/losing margin: 0.5 lengths
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctation: $2.25
Jockey: Dale Evans
Trainer: Alan Bailey
Winner: Jar Jar Binks
Winning/losing margin: 0.5 lengths
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctation: $4.00
Tote dividends' range: $3.40 - $3.60
Jockey: Michael Rodd
Trainer: Bryan Guy

Morphettville: Track Good
R2 $22,000 3YOs. Open. Handicap
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourites: Social Glow, Makbar
Social Glow:
Result: second
Winning/losing margin: 0.8 lengths
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctation: $3.10
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Ken Sweeney
Makbar:
Result: fourth
Winning/losing margin: 2.4 lengths
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctation: $3.50
Jockey: Steven Parnham
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Excels
Winning/losing margin: 0.8 lengths
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctation: $5.50
Tote dividends' range: $4.90 - $6.00
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Richard Jolly

R3 $24,000 Open. Handicap
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Identifiable
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 1 length
Starting price: $1.35
Top fluctation: $1.45
Tote dividends' range: $1.40 - $1.50
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Ken Sweeney

This edition of Punt to Win:
This speed horse is good
Betting odds - that's how important they are
Adelaide money jockey - another betting plunge
Betting favourites in small fields
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Caulfield betting tips from the track
Money talks - Eagle Farm betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 18/7/2003
Punt to Win index

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