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25/10/2002 edition

Northerly Wins Caulfield Cup

Northerly proved he is a true champion when he won the $2,150,000 Group 1 Handicap last Saturday run over 2400 metres carrying 58kg. The 6YO gelding held of a determined challenge from the Tony McEvoy trained Fields Of Omagh to record the historic victory, Northerly's sixteenth win from only 26 starts.

The last horse to carry such a high weight to victory was Ming Dynasty in 1980, and he didn't have to carry the extra kilo for the safety vest jockeys now wear.

Northerly started at $5.50 with the bookmakers in the Caulfield Cup. Tote odds were as low as an appalling $4.20 on SuperTab. $5.50 was not value for Northerly or any other horse in the Caulfield Cup. Many punters take those short odds or even shorter odds about horses in open races. That's one reason why they lose money.

The Cox Plate, to be run over 2040 metres at Moonee Valley next Saturday looks like being the best Cox Plate in years, with horses in the field like champion 7YO mare Sunline having her last race, and trying to equal Kingston Town's record of three Cox Plate wins, Lohnro, Defier, Bel Esprit and the much talked about overseas horse Grandera. Despite these other runners, Northerly must rate a massive show.

We expect Grandera to know he has been in a race. The big question is whether or not Grandera will perform to his overseas rankings on the tight Moonee Valley circuit. One thing though in Grandera's favour is the field will not be overly large.

Overseas horses continue to underperform here. The David Hayes Hong Kong trained 6YO gelding Helene Vitality finished twelfth in the Caulfield Cup. That was also the gelding's fourth run in from a spell, all runs being in Melbourne!

The Godolphin's 5YO horse Beekeeper was heavily supported in pre-race betting. A spokesman for Sydney operator Colin Tidy was reported to have said, "It's smart money, the big players are backing him."

In an excellent Melbourne Cup trial, Beekeeper finished the race off nicely for sixth. We liked Beekeeper for a small spec bet in the race. But we wanted $21.00. We were never in the ballpark because the lightly raced 5YO horse, started at $10.00. Our "smart money" didn't back the horse and stayed in our pockets.

Beekeeper never looked like winning. If you had your money on Beekeeper at odds of around $10.00 it was hardly the sort of run you wanted. Seems the "smart money" hitting the bookies was again not so smart and got stung.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Northerly wins Caulfield Cup
Jockey watch - poor rides at Randwick
Watch these horses from Caulfield
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Randwick plunge horses
Money talks - Caulfield plunge horses
Money talks - Eagle Farm plunge horses
Money talks - Victoria Park plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 18/10/2002
Punt to Win index


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You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.

Horse

Get these tote prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
Rubitano
6.20 9.00 54% $280
Hierogram
3.80 6.50 96% $270
Platinum Scissors
2.90 4.20 68% $130
Northerly
4.20 5.50 41% $130
Enniskerry
3.20 4.20 45% $100


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