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25/10/2002 edition

Victoria Park Plunge Horses
Money Talks?

Each week we will feature tables showing just how successful the "smart money" was in Adelaide. We have decided to include Adelaide despite the high percentages the bookmakers bet to, because:

1. The plunges get accentuated. It doesn't take much money for the Adelaide bookies to dramatically turn in the prices.

2. In our opinion many of the plunged horses were under the odds before the plunge even took place. It will be interesting to see what return there is on these horses at the top odds available. We believe they will definitely return a significant loss at the plunged starting price, which are the odds tote punters end up taking (often shorter). So much for "tips from the track".

To qualify a horse must have firmed 5% in the betting market. For example if a horse was backed in from $5.00 (4/1 or 20%) to $4.00 (3/1 or 25%) it will qualify. Odds calculator gives you tables.

The jockeys and trainers are also important. You may see some jockeys and trainers consistently bringing home plunges whereas others regularly fail to deliver.

Victoria Park, Saturday, 19th. October 2002

Horse, jockey
and trainer

Firmed from % Firm Finish Beaten/winning margin
 
Thanks A Bundle
4.00
3.20
6.25
2/7
long head
Michael Hoppo
Paul Seater
 
Gradual
2.50
2.20
5.46
2/6
neck
Wayne Kerford
John Hawkes
 
Bevan 4.50 3.00 11.11 3/13 4.1 lengths
Chris Bryant
Tony McEvoy
 

Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor tote odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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