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26/3/2004
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
The results should prove quite interesting.
Here are the results from Saturday, March 20.
Rosehill: Track Good
R1 $300,000 2YO C & G. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Not A Single Doubt
Result: fourth
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctation: $1.80
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson
Winner: Charge Forward
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.50
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John O'Shea
R3 $100,000 3YO and upward. Group 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Taikun
Result: first
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Bart Cummings
R5 $400,000 Group 1. Standard Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Ambulance
Result: second
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctation: $2.20
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes
Winner: Sound Action
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.60
Jockey: Wayne Hokai
Trainer: Roberta Maguire
Moonee Valley: Track Good
R4 $200,000 3YO Fillies. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Special Harmony
Result: first
Starting price: $1.20
Top fluctation: $1.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.10
Jockey: Brett Prebble
Trainer: Lee Freedman
R7 $125,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Confectioner
Result: second
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctation: $2.20
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Speedy KIng
Starting price: $7.50
Top fluctation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.20
Jockey: Brett Prebble
Trainer: Graham Woolston
Eagle Farm: Track Good
R4 $50,000 Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Show Biz Kid
Result: second
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctation: $3.40
Jockey: John Powell
Trainer: Ron Macrae
Winner: On The List
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.80
Jockey: Lacey Morrison
Trainer: Darryl Caldwell
Cheltenham: Track Good
R1 $22,000 2YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1315 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Ulysses
Result: second
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctation: $1.70
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy
Winner: Nozi
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.90
Jockey: Nicholas Ryan
Trainer: Richard Jolly
This edition of Punt to Win:
Alinghi
has the Golden Slipper at her mercy
Betting
favourites in small fields
Money
talks - Rosehill, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping
tips - weight and class
Future
winners - unlucky horses
Punt
to Win 19/3/2004
Punt to Win
index
Betting
packages
You
Need Top Odds
It
is just about impossible to get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and the poor value tote horses to make up for
the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.
Short
priced tote favourites
are losing bets.
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reserved.
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