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27/9/2014 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the result for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 20th. September, 2014.

Randwick: Track Dead R1 - R3, Good R4 - R8.
George Main Stakes Day.

R1 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Black Revolver
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.85
Jockey: James McDonald
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Malice
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.50
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: John O'Shea

R2 $125,000 3YO & UP. Group 3. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Rock Sturdy
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Winner: Manawanui
Starting price: $18.00
Top fluctuation: $21.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $15.80
Jockey: Tye Angland
Trainer: Ron Leemon

R3 $100,000 3YO. Listed. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Kuro
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Joseph Pride

R4 $175,000 3YO Fillies. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Winx
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Jason Collett
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: First Seal
Starting price: $19.00
Top fluctuation: $26.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $24.20
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: John P. Thompson

R5 $200,000 3YO & UP. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Moriarty
Result: 6th.
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Jason Collett
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Junoob
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Chris Waller


Doomben: Track Good.

R1 $45,000 Fillies & Mares. 1MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1110 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Espiritu
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Priscilla Schmidt
Trainer: Stephen Lee

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding horse racing & gambling betting odds
The Free Class Horse horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 20/9/2014 & 13/9/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 20/9/2014

Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 13/9/2014 & 6/9/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 6/9/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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