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28/1/2005 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, January 22.

Rosehill: Track Good

R2 $55,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.

Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Lieutenant
Result: first
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: John Hawkes

R3 $30,000 4YO and upward. Mares. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Quatza De Matta
Result: sixth
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Gwenda Markwell
Winner: Vodka And Lion
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.90
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Paul Sutherland

R5 $55,000 3YO and upward. Sc2. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Maverick
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Wicked Wizard
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.50
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Matthew Dale


Sandown Hillside: Track Good

R1 $50,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.

Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Larson
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.40
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: Chris Hyland
Winner: Subdivide
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.60
Jockey: Brady Cross
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson


Eagle Farm: Track Good

R2 $28,000 Rs2ly. Handicap.

Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Noble Gent
Result: first
Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $2.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.30
Jockey: Scott Seamer
Trainer: Jamie Nielson


Victoria Park: Track Good

R4 $40,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights.

Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Strikes Back
Result: seventh
Starting price: $2.25
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Ricky Moore
Winner: Undoubtedly
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.10
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Mark Kavanagh

This edition of Punt to Win:
Jockey changes - free stable betting tips
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Betting tips from the track - Rosehill and Sandown Hillside
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 21/1/2005
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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