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29/10/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 22nd. October, 2011.

On this day Australia's champion 5YO mare, Black Caviar, won her fifteenth consecutive race. Black Caviar has never yet been beaten!!

In addition, the Race of Champions, the $3,000,000 invitation only Cox Plate was run at Moonee Valley over 2040 metres under standard Weight for Age conditions.

4YO mare Pinker Pinker won the Cox Plate in something of an upset as Pinker Pinker started at $26.00 with the bookies on track, firming from $31.00. Pinker Pinker was trained by Greg Eurell and ridden by Craig Williams.

The $2.80 favourite, 3YO colt Helmet, was not strong enough to handle the typically frantic pace set in the Cox Plate, and weakened to finish eighth, more than 4 lengths from the winner.
Helmet was trained by Peter Snowden and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy.

Moonee Valley: Cox Plate Day - Track Dead.

R4 $200,000 Moonee Valley Vase. (Registered name.) 3YO. Group 2. Set weights.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Manawanui
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.22
Top fluctuation: $1.22
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.20
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Ron Leemon

R5 $300,000 A. J. Moir Stakes. (Registered name.) Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 4
Favourite: Black Caviar
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.05
Top fluctuation: $1.05
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.04
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody


Rosehill: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. NMWLY. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Miss Keepsake
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.60
Jockey: Chad Schofield
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Winner: Merensky Reef
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $13.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.80
Jockey: Kathy O’Hara
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

This edition of Punt to Win:
Flemington Melbourne Cup free advice, betting tips, odds and free ratings
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Free Melbourne Cup horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/10/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/10/2011 & 8/10/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 8/10/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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