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29/10/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse racing fields on Saturday, 15th. October, 2011.

On this day the $2.5 million Group 1 Caulfield Cup was held at Caulfield horse race track. The Caulfield Cup was won by the lowest handicapped horse in the field of 18, 4YO mare Southern Speed, trained by Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas and ridden by Craig Williams. Southern Speed firmed a touch with the bookmakers from $11.00 to start at $10.00. Second by 1.5 lengths in the Caulfield Cup was 5YO entire Green Moon. Green Moon started at $11.00. It was trained by Robert Hickmott and ridden by Nicholas Hall. Third in the Caulfield Cup, two lengths from the winner, was the Gai Waterhouse trained 5YO gelding Tullamore, ridden by Craig Newitt. Tullamore started at $20.00.

The $3.30 favourite, 6YO gelding December Draw, finished last, nearly 25 lengths from the winner. December Draw was trained by Mark Kavanagh and ridden by Michael Rodd. The Stewards' report revealed that Michale Rodd "could offer no real excuses for the disappointing performance of the gelding and added at the 500m he attempted to make a run but his mount did not respond to his riding." In addition, "A post race veterinary examination of December Draw revealed no abnormal findings" and that a "swab sample was taken for analysis."

Caulfield: Caulfield Cup Day - Track Dead.

R1 $70,500 3YO. Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Belle Of The Court
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody


Randwick: Track Slow.

R1 $70,000 3YO. Fillies. Rating 67. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Nocturnelle
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.35
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Chris Waller


Eagle Farm: Track Heavy R1-R6, Slow R7-R8.

R2 $45,000 Fillies & Mares. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Count Your Fingers
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.80
Jockey: Paul Hammersley
Trainer: John P. Thompson
Winner: Just Destiny
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $9.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $10.20
Jockey: Eddie Wilkinson
Trainer: Rex Lipp

R7 $45,000 Colts, Geldings & Entires. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Santa De Lago
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Luke Rolls
Trainer: Les Kelly
Winner: Eight Pieces
Starting price: $4.80
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.30
Jockey: Robert Thompson
Trainer: Darryl Hansen


Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 8th. October, 2011.

Caulfield: Caulfield Guineas Day - Track Dead.

R1 $70,500 3YO. Colts & Geldings. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Adamantium
Result: 1st.
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: Danny O'Brien


Eagle Farm: Track Heavy.

R4 $75,000 Open. Quality. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Fillydelphia
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Robert Heathcote

This edition of Punt to Win:
Flemington Melbourne Cup free advice, betting tips, odds and free ratings
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The Free Melbourne Cup horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/10/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/10/2011 & 8/10/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 8/10/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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