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30/7/2005 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

Betting on maiden races

Maiden races tend to be very ordinary betting affairs.

You'll invariably find a horse that has failed to win a race from five or more starts being sent out the favourite, even an odds on favourite. It's not our idea of successful betting on horses to take short odds on a horse that is contesting a maiden because it has become a proven non-winner.

Look at last Saturday at Echuca. In the fourth race of the day, a maiden run over 2100 metres, 4YO gelding Bud's Boy was sent out the favourite. Bud's Boy had already raced 23 times for just three seconds and two thirds and of course no wins. Did Bud's Boy win on Saturday? In the field of 12 he finished sixth.

It's not uncommon to see a favourite in a maiden from a satisfactory barrier like five not having the speed to obtain a position and even with a leading jockey being wide throughout. Of course this ordinary conveyance will then badly weaken and fail to run a place, even as an odds on favourite.


1000 metres races - weight matters

It's quite common to be told by the racing media that weight does not matter in 1000 metres races. For example you might find a class six year old horse resuming with 60kg. over 1000 metres after a spell of six months. Most likely the horse will show good early speed, but don't be surprised if it weakens out of the race.

Seriously, it is expecting a bit much of a six year old or seven year old with top weight of 60kg. to win first up. If the horse's record indicates that it is superior on dry tracks and it is resuming on a Slow track, then you are really asking for trouble backing it first up with 60kg., even if it is sent out as a favourite.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting on maiden races
1000 metres races - weight matters
Get those betting odds
John Hawkes horse racing betting system
Horse Watch - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for popular winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Warwick Farm and Caulfield
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 23/7/2005
Punt to Win index


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