Punt to Win

Horse racing forums
Swap tips and discuss betting systems and software
Win at racing



1/12/2007 edition

How You Too Can Bet Horse Racing Winners at Big Odds

Finding winning bets at big odds can be done!

Every day horses win at big double figure odds. There are plenty of opportunities for you to find winners and placegetters that are real value and should be at much shorter odds. These horses can also add massive value to your trifecta and first four betting.

Knowing the sort of form clues to look for, with some smart detective work you can back these huge winners and avoid betting the many horses at big odds that are still poor value - for example the horse at $20.00 that should really be $40.00 or $50.00

Let's look at an example we have used in the past to demonstrate what to look for.

Sundiva won a 3YO Fillies Open Handicap over 1555 metres at Morphettville on 30 August a few years back at huge odds. It was only her third start.

The normally very tight Adelaide bookies opened Sundiva at $26.00 and firmed the filly to $21.00, still outstanding value. Why was Sundiva such excellent value?

Sundiva had only raced twice - on 30 July and 16 August. On 16 August she raced in a 3YO Open at Morphettville over 1200 metres and finished the race off well. While she finished seventh, she was only two and a half lengths from the winner. The indications were that she was looking for more distance.

That's what she got two weeks later when she stormed home from well back in the field to win at the same track. She was also down slightly in overall class - back to a 3YO Fillies race instead of a 3YO Open.

There were no worldbeaters in the field of 10 fillies. Chickadee stood out on the basis of a 1.9 lengths fourth in a 2YO Fillies Group 3 race over 1200 metres at Flemington earlier in March. However Chickadee was second up with a 24 day break after her first up run, beaten 4.9 lengths in a restricted midweek 3YO Fillies race at Sandown Lakeside track over 1400 metres. On that form, combined with a decent break between her first and second runs, she was no certainty to win in Adelaide.

Because Sundiva started at $51.00 at Morphettville at her previous start, her good run was probably dismissed as a fluke. There are many horses that win or put in strong runs at big double figure odds and are then sent out at big odds again in similar company because punters mistakenly assume the previous run was a fluke and will not be repeated.

It will pay not to dismiss those good runs by horses at huge odds as flukes like most punters do, particularly if you are dealing with a lightly raced horse. These lightly raced horses can very quickly improve!

Just as it pays not to dismiss those good runs by horses at huge odds as flukes like most punters do, so it will also pay not to dismiss a horse because it has put in one bad run, particularly if that run is early in its campaign and its previous couple of runs that campaign were good.

It is amazing what generous odds you can find about winners when the horse proves that its previous run should have just been dismissed as "one of those things.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horse racing winners at big odds - form tips to look out for
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Consistent Strike Rate Selection Method horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 17/11/2007
Punt to Win index

2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Distant Melody 26.00 49.90 $239
Montechoro 15.00 22.30 $73
Efficient 17.00 24.10 $71
Sculptor 21.00 24.90 $39
Partiva 21.00 24.30 $33
Count To Zero 13.00 15.70 $27


Copyright 1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.


Home | Contact us | Horse racing forum | Advertise

  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.