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Punt to Win
How You Too Can Bet Horse Racing Winners at Big Odds
Finding winning bets at big odds can be done!
Knowing the sort of form clues to look for, with some smart detective work you can back these huge winners and avoid betting the many horses at big odds that are still poor value - for example the horse at $20.00 that should really be $40.00 or $50.00
Let's look at an example we have used in the past to demonstrate what to look for.
The normally very tight Adelaide bookies opened Sundiva at $26.00 and firmed the filly to $21.00, still outstanding value. Why was Sundiva such excellent value?
Sundiva had only raced twice - on 30 July and 16 August. On 16 August she raced in a 3YO Open at Morphettville over 1200 metres and finished the race off well. While she finished seventh, she was only two and a half lengths from the winner. The indications were that she was looking for more distance.
That's what she got two weeks later when she stormed home from well back in the field to win at the same track. She was also down slightly in overall class - back to a 3YO Fillies race instead of a 3YO Open.
There were no worldbeaters in the field of 10 fillies. Chickadee stood out on the basis of a 1.9 lengths fourth in a 2YO Fillies Group 3 race over 1200 metres at Flemington earlier in March. However Chickadee was second up with a 24 day break after her first up run, beaten 4.9 lengths in a restricted midweek 3YO Fillies race at Sandown Lakeside track over 1400 metres. On that form, combined with a decent break between her first and second runs, she was no certainty to win in Adelaide.
Because Sundiva started at $51.00 at Morphettville at her previous start, her good run was probably dismissed as a fluke. There are many horses that win or put in strong runs at big double figure odds and are then sent out at big odds again in similar company because punters mistakenly assume the previous run was a fluke and will not be repeated.
It will pay not to dismiss those good runs by horses at huge odds as flukes like most punters do, particularly if you are dealing with a lightly raced horse. These lightly raced horses can very quickly improve!
Just as it pays not to dismiss those good runs by horses at huge odds as flukes like most punters do, so it will also pay not to dismiss a horse because it has put in one bad run, particularly if that run is early in its campaign and its previous couple of runs that campaign were good.
It is amazing what generous odds you can find about winners when the horse proves that its previous run should have just been dismissed as "one of those things.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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