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Punt to Win |
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2/8/2002 edition Betting Tips Big fields - get value One of the biggest betting mistakes by punters is accepting short odds on horses in big fields. The bigger the field, the more winning chances and also the more likely your horse will have bad luck in running. Consider these examples from last Saturday: Clangalang $1.90 3rd. of 15. Both horses were under the odds. At $1.90 Clangalang was given a 52.6% chance of winning. That only allows the other 14 runners between them to have a 47.4% chance of winning, an average of only 3.9% each. At $3.80 Finnigan was given a 26.3% chance of winning. That only allows the other 16 runners between them to have a 73.7% chance of winning, an average of only 4.6% each. When the rest of the field are given such low average chances of winning the favourite is often well under the odds. First up horses - obvious bets, short odds Horses resuming from a spell can be excellent betting propositions, but only if you get value. Take the case of the Gai Waterhouse trained Ramraid at Randwick last Saturday: The 5YO gelding was resuming from a spell of five months. He had four wins, six seconds and three thirds from 21 starts, but an outstanding first up record of two wins, two seconds and a third from only five starts. The value will usually not be there when the horse appears to be an obvious bet first up. As a result he was sent out at the short odds of $3.50. He finished last in the field of 10 after overracing. You can get good value on horses first up - but they needn't have obviously outstanding first up records. One plan of attack is to look for horses which have put in strong runs first up, but don't necessarily have on paper that outstanding first up record that anyone can read. They may not have even won first up. These horses can get under everyone's guard and win at big double figure odds. This edition of Punt to Win: Back Tote Longshots?
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| Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk. | |||
