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2/8/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the result from Saturday, 26th. July.

Moonee Valley: Track Dead

R3 $100,000 Hurdle. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 3210 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Bullecourt
Result: third
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Trent Wells
Trainer: Fran Houlahan & Brian Johnston
Winner: Viz Vitae
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Chris Maund
Trainer: David Hayes


Here are the results from Saturday, 19th. July.

Eagle Farm: Track Slow

R3 $45,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Babinda Half
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.60
Jockey: Michael Hellyer
Trainer: Robert Bradshaw
Winner: Myagi
Starting price: $10.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $15.70
Jockey: Jason Holder
Trainer: John W. Collins


Morphettville: Track Dead

R1 $25,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Telescope
Result: second
Starting price: $2.60
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Winner: Do The Dash
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Simon Price
Trainer: Leon Macdonald

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse Racing betting tips and wagering strategy - place betting
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Bunched Field Big Money Dividend Odds horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small field: 26/7/2008 & 19/7/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 26/7/2008 & 19/7/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 19/7/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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