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3/5/2002 edition

Betting Tips

Backmarkers - get value

Horses who do not race on the speed need more luck in their races than on pace runners. That means you must take better odds about them than you would an on pace horse with similar form.

At Eagle Farm on Anzac Day the John Hawkes trained 3YO filly Harveynicks was taking on the older mares in a Class 6 event over 1300 metres. She was also a backmarker and had a poor barrier 10, in the field of 12.

On the Queensland tote Harveynicks was showing odds on $1.90. She never looked like winning. Eliminate poor value bets like that and you must do better overall.

While we're talking about getting value odds, with the jumps season back in earnest in Melbourne, the same applies. In hurdles and steeples you have to allow for accidents in the running. That means if you must bet in these races you have to get more generous odds.

Punters on the favourite in the 3200 metres hurdle at Moonee Valley last Saturday, City Of Gold, saw the jockey, Brian Constable, thrown at the second hurdle. Race over, money lost.


Turning tracks - short runs to turn

Doomben is a tight turning track. The 1010 metres start is also very tough on horses with wide barriers. There is only a short run to the first turn. If a favoured runner is drawn wide the jockeys on the inside usually keep pushing up to make that horse work hard and to keep the horse wide.

So was the case at Doomben last Saturday with Paralo, the $3.20 favourite in a 2YO Colts and Geldings Open. The colt had barrier eight of eight and was trapped three wide throughout outside the leaders. After briefly hitting the lead in the straight Paralo weakened to finish second, beaten over a length. With an inside barrier it would have been a different story.


This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting tips - you need value with these horses
Media hype horses - be wary
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Moonee Valley plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/4/2002
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Norm's Bridle
19.30
25.60
$630
Stora Bollar 41.10 47.20 $610
Force Zulu 10.60 14.70 $410
Vidual 9.50 13.50 $400
Froth And Bubble 10.50 14.20 $370


You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Remember short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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