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3/5/2002 edition

Media Hype Horses
Beware

Leading into the running of last Saturday's $150,000 Group 2 Weight for Age Brisbane Turf Club Cup over 1200 metres was non stop media hype about Falvelon. The racing media was full of headlines like "Falvelon set to fire" and "Falvelon back in favour."

There's no surer way of guaranteeing losing money on racing than by consistently backing the horses that make the headlines. You can be certain you will regularly receive odds way under their true winning chances. In a wide open race Falvelon was sent out the $4.20 favourite - much shorter on the tote.

That being said, Falvelon ran a mighty race after starting from barrier 11 in the field of 13. After working hard early, Falvelon was involved in a two horse war in the straight with the John Hawkes' trained Lord Essex, a Weight for Age Group 1 winner in Sydney at his previous start. Falvelon hit the lead in the straight, but Lord Essex fought back and won by a neck.

Because Falvelon's run was so obviously good, chances are the hype will be there again at his next start and poor value odds will be on offer again.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting tips - you need value with these horses
Media hype horses - be wary
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Moonee Valley plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/4/2002
Punt to Win index


Betting packages


Back Tote Longshots?

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $100 bet
Norm's Bridle
19.30
25.60
$630
Stora Bollar 41.10 47.20 $610
Force Zulu 10.60 14.70 $410
Vidual 9.50 13.50 $400
Froth And Bubble 10.50 14.20 $370


You Need Top Odds

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.
If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Remember short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.