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3/5/2014 edition

Should You Wager Money Betting Tote Favourites?

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Backing short priced tote favourites is often the equivalent to throwing your money away. It is just about a guaranteed long term loss because you cannot get the huge winning strike rate needed to overcome the big unders you get compared to bookmaker and other betting odds, particularly on Melbourne and Sydney metropolitan meetings.

The following comments made by Shane Templeton are just as relevant today. In his column "The Pocket Talking", Herald Sun, Monday, January 6, 2003, Shane Templeton wrote:

"Tote too skinny

Off-course tote punters betting blindly on favourites have cost themselves plenty lately. Let's look back only to the Valley on Saturday..."

Shane Templeton then went on to point out the huge difference between bookmaker betting odds and the odds tote punters received on SuperTab, including what he described as "The worst case on Saturday" - that was Kali Smytzer. She eased on course from $2.50 to $4.00 and didn't even start favourite. On the tote she opened at $2.00 and would have paid huge unders if she won.

Have a look at the table below to see more examples from Moonee Valley of how tote punters got massive unders on short priced favourites.

Moonee Valley 4/1/2003

Horse

SuperTab
Tote Odds

Bookmaker Odds

Tote Loss

Atin
1.90
2.50 - 60
Gazania
2.90
4.00 - 110
Paternal
2.70
3.00 - 30
Tarn Princess
2.90
3.00 - 10

Each week we compare Tote odds with bookmaker betting odds for all horses that won starting at $5.50 or shorter in the bookmaker betting ring. You can see the huge differences between bookmaker odds and tote odds obtsined by thousands of punters over many hundreds of results.

As a very general rule the only horses that should be backed on the tote for a win will be around double figure odds with the bookies.

One of the popular betting myths is that you can get "value" by taking a short priced tote favourite as your standout to win in a trifecta, often with other popular tote horses. You can't. How is that possible when the tote takes a bigger cut from trifectas than from win bets?

The only possible chance is if your aim is to beat the other punters with horses finishing second and third that they dismiss. If it's a smallish field that's also very unlikely as a common trifecta taken by punters is odds on favourite/field/field.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Should you bet money on tote favourites?
The Free High Strike Rate Win Big horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: All Aged Stakes Day 26/4/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: Queen Elizabeth Stakes Day 19/4/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: Australian Derby & Doncaster Handicap Day 12/4/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/4/2014, 19/4/2014 & 12/4/2014

Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 12/4/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

On Saturday, 23rd. November, our tipster gave followers Padrino, a $51.00 winner and the Free Ratings found a $19,048.40 First Four at Eagle Farm!!

On Saturday, 16th. November, our tipster gave followers Missing Page, $15.00 winner and Ninth Legion, $7.00 winner!

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2013 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends

Horse

Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Mujadale 15.00 18.70 $111
Bernabeu 10.90 13.00 $63
Chile Express 14.00 16.00 $60
Plucky Belle 15.50 17.30 $54
Oakleigh Girl 5.50 6.50 $30
Richie's Vibe 7.70 8.50 $24
Fiorente 6.90 7.50 $18
Salon Soldier 2.70 3.20 $15
Wistful 4.40 4.80 $12
Moderate 1.90 2.15 $7.50


 

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