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3/5/2014 edition

Group 1 Horse Racing Results

Common advice given to punters by the horse racing media and in many publications educating punters about betting on horse racing is that the best races are also the best betting races for them. "Bet in the best quality races on very good, consistent horses," punters are regularly told.

Well, let's see if that is yet another betting myth.

So we're checking out the results of Group 1 races.

Do favourites - usually very good consistent horses win these races and when they don't win put in good runs? Is there any value when the favourites do win?

Or do the despised outsiders win Group 1 races? Meaning of course that punters are losing their money wagering in these races.

Here are the Group 1 horse racing results from Randwick on Saturday, 12th. April, 2014.
(Where possible registered names have been used for the races.)

Randwick: Track Heavy.

R5 $1,000,000 ATC Sires Produce Stakes. 2YO. Group 1. Set weights.
Distance: 1400 metres
Field size: 11
Winner: Peggy Jean
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Bookmaker top fluctuation: $3.80
Bookmaker starting price: $3.80
Best tote: $3.80
Second: Scratch Me Lucky - beaten by 0.5 lengths
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Paul Perry
Bookmaker starting price: $26.00
Favourite: Believe Yourself

Finish: 10th.
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Gerald Ryan
Bookmaker starting price: $3.30 favourite

R6 $2,000,000 Australian Derby. 3YO. Group 1. Set weights.
Distance: 2400 metres
Field size: 18
Winner: Criterion
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: David Payne
Bookmaker top fluctuation: $3.10
Bookmaker starting price: $2.90 favourite
Best tote: $2.90
Second: Tupac Amaru - beaten by 0.4 lengths
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter Snowden
Bookmaker starting price: $16.00

R7 $2,500,000 T. J. Smith Stakes. Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1200 metres
Field size: 15
Winner: Lankan Rupee
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price
Bookmaker top fluctuation: $4.40
Bookmaker starting price: $3.80 favourite
Best tote: $3.70
Second: Rebel Dane - beaten by 2 lengths
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Gary Portelli
Bookmaker starting price: $9.00

R8 $3,000,000 Doncaster Handicap. 3YO and upwards. Group 1. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Field size: 20
Winner: Sacred Falls
Jockey: Zac Purton
Trainer: Chris Waller
Bookmaker top fluctuation: $12.00
Bookmaker starting price: $10.00
Best tote: $10.90
Second: Royal Descent - beaten by 0.5 lengths
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Chris Waller
Bookmaker starting price: $8.50
Favourite: Weary

Finish: 3rd.
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Chris Waller
Bookmaker starting price: $4.40 favourite

This edition of Punt to Win:
Should you bet money on tote favourites?
The Free High Strike Rate Win Big horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: All Aged Stakes Day 26/4/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: Queen Elizabeth Stakes Day 19/4/2014
Group 1 horse racing results: Australian Derby & Doncaster Handicap Day 12/4/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/4/2014, 19/4/2014 & 12/4/2014

Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 12/4/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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