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4/11/2006 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Cox Plate Day, Saturday, 28th. October.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $60,000 3YO and upward. Class 6. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Anwaar

Result: first
Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Joshua Parr
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R3 $60,000 3YO. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: At The Roxy
Starting price: $4.60

Top fluctuation: $5.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Darryl McLellan
Trainer: Kris Lees


Moonee Valley - Cox Plate Day: Track Dead

R4 $200,000 Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Red Oog
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Winner: California Dane
Starting price: $6.00
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Keiren Fallon
Trainer: Lee Freedman


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $25,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Superleggera
Result: third
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.00
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes
Winner: Armanjena
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Warren Hughes
Trainer: David Hayes

R2 $20,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Glory Be
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctuation: $3.00
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
Winner: Reli Of Nic
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.70
Jockey: Damien Robinson
Trainer: Phillip Stokes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Melbourne Cup betting form, facts and tips
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Melbourne Cup horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: Cox Plate Day
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Cox Plate Day
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 28/10/2006
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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