Punt to Win

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5/5/2007 edition

Is This Betting for Value?

How often do you hear media anointed horse racing "experts" tell you to take two short priced horses in a double to win because they are both "certainities" to win and by going all up you will "get some value" out of these good things?

It happens often. Far too often.

Worst of all many punters believe it.

Just as they believe you can get "value" out of place betting by going all up with two or three horses for the place.

Searching through our archives we found an example where a number of "experts" gave as their best bet of the day for Caulfield the short priced favourites' running double Innovation Girl into The Mighty Lions.

The claim was that by taking a running double you could "get some value" out of these "good things." That was not correct.

1. If a win bet is no value, then backing it in a double with another no value win bet on the tote does not magically create value. The totes win. They won't give you one cent's worth of extra value from two poor value win bets.

2. All you have done is taken a poor value double - two poor value win bets.

3. Because many tote punters will be doing exactly the same thing you can be guaranteed big unders with your payout.

4. These big unders guarantee that the bet is a long term losing bet.

5. Innovation Girl won and paid $1.60 on SuperTab. The Mighty Lions was wide throughout and never looked like winning.

6. As a bet of the day it was a dud.

7. Lesson: Taking two short priced tote favourites in a double to "create value" is a very poor value bet and should be avoided.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Is this betting value?
Get those betting odds
The New Trainer Winning Bolters horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 28/4/2007 and 21/4/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 28/4/2007 and 21/4/2007
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 21/4/2007
Punt to Win index

2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Typhoon Zed 21.50 28.90 $74
Delta Blues 17.50 20.20 $27
Lyrical Bid 16.50 19.00 $25
Brom Felinity 13.30 15.70 $24
Dance Hero 12.60 14.90 $23
Southern Courage 16.20 18.30 $21


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