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Punt to Win
Should You Wager Money Betting Tote Favourites?
Backing short priced tote favourites is equivalent to throwing your money away. It is just about a guaranteed long term loss because you cannot get the massive winning strike rate needed to overcome the big unders you get compared to bookmaker and other betting odds, particularly on Melbourne and Sydney metropolitan meetings.
The following comments made by Shane Templeton are just as relevant today. In his column "The Pocket Talking", Herald Sun, Monday, January 6, 2003, Shane Templeton wrote:
Shane Templeton then went on to point out the huge difference between bookmaker betting odds and the odds tote punters received on SuperTab, including what he described as "The worst case on Saturday" - that was Kali Smytzer. She eased on course from $2.50 to $4.00 and didn't even start favourite. On the tote she opened at $2.00 and would have paid huge unders if she won.
Have a look at the table below to see more examples from Moonee Valley of how tote punters got massive unders on short priced favourites.
Each week we compare SuperTab odds with bookmaker betting odds for all horses that start at $5.50 or shorter in the bookmaker betting ring. You can see the huge differences between bookmaker and tote odds over hundreds of results.
As a very general rule the only horses that should be backed on the tote for a win will be around double figure odds.
One of the popular betting myths is that you can get "value" by taking a short priced tote favourite as your standout to win in a trifecta, often with other popular tote horses. You can't. How is that possible when the tote takes a bigger cut from trifectas than from win bets?
The only possible chance is if your aim is to beat the other punters with horses finishing second and third that they dismiss. If it's a smallish field that's also very unlikely as a common trifecta is odds on favourite/field/field.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2006 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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