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21/4/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 14th. April.

Moonee Valley: Track Good

R2 $50,000 3YO. Restricted 0 - 82 Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Amberino
Result: third
Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Trainer: John Moloney
Winner: Top Tier
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Daniel Moor
Trainer: Matthew Hyland


Doomben: Track Good

R2 $50,000 Class 6. Set weights.
Distance: 2120 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Scattergun
Result: fifth
Starting price: $1.14
Top fluctuation: $1.14
Jockey: Ric McMahon
Trainer: Brian Smith
Winner: Palace Lover
Starting price: $16.00
Top fluctuation: $16.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $14.00
Jockey: Hirotaka Hamada
Trainer: Michael Nolan


Here are the results from Saturday, 7th. April.

Randwick - AJC Australian Derby Day
Track: Heavy

R1 $70,000 3YO and upwards. Welter. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Martiniforus
Result: first

Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Should you wager money betting tote favourites?
Get those betting odds
The Consistent Race Fit horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 14/4/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 7/4/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Sydney Cup Day - 14/4/2007
Betting tips from the track: AJC Australian Derby Day - 7/4/2007
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 7/4/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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