5/12/2003 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, November 29.

Rosehill: Track Good
R2 $50,000 2YO Colts & Geldings. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Not A Single Doubt
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 5 lengths
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctation: $1.80
Tote dividends' range: $1.50 - $1.70
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

Moonee Valley: Track Good
R1 $40,000 2YO Fillies. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Carlton Ace
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 0.5 lengths
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctation: $3.70
Tote dividends' range: $3.60 - $3.90
Jockey: Greg Childs
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

R2 $40,000 3YO Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sunboat
Result: third
Winning/losing margin: 1.5 lengths
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctation: $2.70
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Lee Freedman
Winner: Go Fuhrever
Winning/losing margin: 0.8 lengths
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctation: $4.40
Tote dividends' range: $3.00 - $3.40
Jockey: Patrick Payne
Trainer: James Sheppard

Victoria Park: Track Good
R2 $22,000 2YO Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Headland
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 6.3 lengths
Starting price: $1.40
Top fluctation: $1.40
Tote dividends' range: $1.50 - $1.60
Jockey: Aaron Spiteri
Trainer: Tony McEvoy

This edition of Punt to Win:
Tab merger - will larger pools add betting value?
2003 Japan Cup betting odds
System selling pests
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Rosehill, Moonee Valley betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 28/11/2003
Punt to Win index

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