|Horse racing and
Punt to Win
1. Big last start winners - watch the odds
Horses who win by three lengths or more have a big plus. The handicapper cannot increase their weight at their next start by enough to completely nullify the three lengths' winning margin.
There is also a big negative. All punters can see the large winning margin. As a result many of these horses are sent around well under the odds at their next start.
However if you do your homework you can still back some pretty good winners at their next starts from this group. In particular look for lightly raced horses rising in class and dropping in weight.
But stay clear if the odds are short. Because you can then guarantee the media and every punter has taken note of its last start win and it is now being sent around under the odds.
2. Bet on horses who make their own luck
With the racing patterns in Australia it is pretty clear if you want to maximise your chances of success you must:
1. Concentrate on backing horses who lead or race on the speed.
The following is a typical excuse used for a run on horse that just failed to win after running on hard:
"I thought his run was unbelievable. I have no doubt he is the best horse in the race. But the pace steadied during the middle stages which made things hard for us."
If the horse had raced on the speed that would not be an issue.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2005 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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