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6/9/2002 edition

"This Horse Can't Lose"

Here is what Sky Racing host John Tapp sensibly said about Gypsy Lad, the $3.00 favourite, after the horse's run in the welter handicap at Caulfield last Saturday:

"The favourite Gypsy Lad - every possible hope. Couldn't find a semblance of an excuse... had the one out, one back spot, loomed up and wasn't disgraced by any manner of means, battled on to finish not very far from the winner but was never going to win either."

Now here is what Radio Sport 927 tipping panel member, Matt Stewart said earlier in the day:

"I can't see a horse in this race that can beat Gypsy Lad... I think he's a moral."

1. Clearly the bookmakers disagreed with Matt Stewart and were correct. That's why they offered $3.00 about the horse that "couldn't lose".
2. Not just one, but three other horses beat Gypsy Lad in the race.
3. How is it possible to give a horse 100% chances of winning and the rest of the field 0% chances of winning?

Now, nothing personal here. No doubt Matt Stewart is a very nice person. But as punters, surely we should not be given such statistically unsound comments?

When you read or hear media tipsters telling you a horse "cannot possibly lose, there's nothing in the race that can beat it, or only bad luck can beat it," it's probably best to be generous and say it's an exaggeration. They probably mean the horse has a top winning chance. Let's hope so.

As we saw with Gypsy Lad, no bad luck was involved. The horse was simply not good enough on the day. The odds of $3.00 in that 15 horse welter were not good value, but significant unders.

This edition of Punt to Win:
"This horse can't lose"
Carnival racing favourites, value betting odds - Rosehill
Carnival racing favourites, value betting odds - Caulfield
Spring Carnival horses/betting tips
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill plunge horses
Money talks - Caulfield plunge horses
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 30/8/2002
Punt to Win index

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It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and the poor value tote horses to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
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Get these tote prices? Or these prices!! Extra percentage won Extra Profit $100 bet
7.10 10.00 48% $290
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7.00 9.00 33% $200
1.80 2.40 75% $60

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