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6/9/2014 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the result for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 30th. August, 2014.

Rosehill: Track Heavy.

R1 $85,000 3YO. Rating 70. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Burning Passion
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $2.25
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Trainer: Anthony Cummings
Winner: Sweynesse
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.20
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: John O'Shea


Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 23rd. August, 2014.

Randwick: Track Heavy.

R4 $175,000 Silver Shadow Stakes. 3YO. Fillies. Group 2. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Bring Me The Maid
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.85
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.70
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody

R6 $175,000 Warwick Stakes. 3YO & UP. Group 2. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sacred Falls
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Tiger Tees
Starting price: $5.50
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.80
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Joseph Pride


Moonee Valley: Track Good.

R1 $80,000 3YO. Fillies. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Cool Hero
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Afleet Esprit
Starting price: $3.60
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.40
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Trainer: David Hayes & Tom Dabernig


Doomben: Track Heavy.

R2 $45,000 0MW. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Gun Case
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: Liam Birchley

R4 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2020 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Volkhere
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.35
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.20
Jockey: Bridget Grylls
Trainer: Robert Heathcote

R5 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Jefferson Park
Result: 3rd.
Starting price: $3.10
Jockey: Tegan Harrison
Trainer: Craig Martin
Winner: Living On A Prayer
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $7.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.20
Jockey: Beau Appo
Trainer: John Morrisey

There were no small horse race fields on Saturday, 16th. August, 2014.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Winning money on horse racing & short priced tote favourites
The Free Lucky Eleven horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Group 1 horse racing results: 30/8/2014
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 30/8/2014, 23/8/2014 & 16/8/2014

Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 16/8/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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