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16/8/2014 edition

Understanding Horse Racing Markets and Betting Odds

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Here is an interesting story about what we heard a race caller say some time ago as the horses were going into the barriers:

Here are the top three top tote horses, they are "some of the chances" and then noting that one of them had one win from 27 races concluded with the comical:

"Then you've got the rest of them really struggling. So I think this is a struggle race for everybody here."

The race caller then added, commenting on the betting ring action at the track:

"This is a funny race. They really haven't really had a crack at anything. I think most agree this is probably one of the hardest races of the day..."

What the race caller forgot to mention was the bookmaker betting market odds. The starting price market was 131%. That is equivalent to being offered $1.53 about the toss of a coin!

How would anyone like a total return, including your dollar, of $1.53 for guessing correctly heads or tails on the toss of a coin? That's what the horse racing betting ring market odds were equivalent to.

No wonder "They really haven't really had a crack at anything."

Of course, because the true winning chances for horses are a matter of opinion, no matter what sort of data you want to feed into your ratings software for the race, and not an obvious statistical fact like 50% for heads or tails, there is the possibility the bookies could get a horse's odds wrong.

But in horse racing markets of 130%+ there's not much chance of that.

It's far more likely that most if not every horse is significantly under its true winning chances - in other words, a guaranteed long term losing bet for every punter!!

A betting market of 133% is equal to odds of $1.50 about the toss of a coin.

A betting market of 125% is equal to odds of $1.60 about the toss of a coin.

A betting market of 118% is equal to odds of $1.70 about the toss of a coin.

A betting market of 111% is equal to odds of $1.80 about the toss of a coin.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding horse racing markets & betting odds
The Free True Favourite horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 9/8/2014 & 2/8/2014

Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 26/7/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 26/7/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

On Saturday, 23rd. November, our tipster gave followers Padrino, a $51.00 winner and the Free Ratings found a $19,048.40 First Four at Eagle Farm!!

On Saturday, 16th. November, our tipster gave followers Missing Page, $15.00 winner and Ninth Legion, $7.00 winner!

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2013 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends

Horse

Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Mujadale 15.00 18.70 $111
Bernabeu 10.90 13.00 $63
Chile Express 14.00 16.00 $60
Plucky Belle 15.50 17.30 $54
Oakleigh Girl 5.50 6.50 $30
Richie's Vibe 7.70 8.50 $24
Fiorente 6.90 7.50 $18
Salon Soldier 2.70 3.20 $15
Wistful 4.40 4.80 $12
Moderate 1.90 2.15 $7.50

 

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