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16/8/2014 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here is the result for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 9th. August, 2014.

Randwick: Track Dead R1 - R2, Good R3 - R8.

R1 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 81. Handicap.
Distance: 2400 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Saigon Tea
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctuation: $2.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.10
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Chris Waller


Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 2nd. August, 2014.

Rosehill: Track Good.

R1 $85,000 3YO. Open. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Liberation
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $1.70
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Press Report
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $4.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Winona Costin
Trainer: Lee Curtis

R3 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 90. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Laidback Larry
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.90
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: James McDonald
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R7 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 90. Handicap.
Distance: 1350 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Rock Sturdy
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.45
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Joseph Pride


Moonee Valley: Track Slow.

R1 $80,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: 5
Favourite: Bagman
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Chris Waller

R4 $80,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Lord Of The Sky
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $1.90
Jockey: Kayla Nisbet
Trainer: Robbie Laing
Winner: Our Nkwazi
Starting price: $31.00
Top fluctuation: $31.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $29.90
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Shawn Mathrick

This edition of Punt to Win:
Understanding horse racing markets & betting odds
The Free True Favourite horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing ratings & betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 9/8/2014 & 2/8/2014

Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 26/7/2014
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 26/7/2014
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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