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7/2/2003 edition

Damien Oliver
Tote Punters' Unders

It seems punters are their own worst enemies betting on Tabcorp. Have a look at the accompanying table of Damien Oliver's rides at Flemington last Saturday to see what we mean.

Flemington
Saturday, February 1, 2003
Horse
Tabcorp
Odds
Bookmaker
Odds
Resolved
5.90
6.00
Madam Dehereos
4.30
6.50
It's Rysek
4.10
4.20
Chairman's Choice
3.00
4.00
Hardrada
8.80
8.00
Acetate
6.10
8.00
Cosmic Strike
5.50
6.50

Damien Oliver rode two winners last Saturday.

Madam Dehereos won and tote punters collected $4.30. Many would not be feeling too good when they picked up the morning paper and saw its starting price in the bookmakers' betting ring of $6.50. Getting massive unders is never too pleasant. It wasn't so bad with Damien Oliver's other winner, It's Rysek, where tote punters collected $4.10 compared to the starting price of $4.20. But it all adds up.

Tote punters would have got a shock if Chairman's Choice won and they collected the $3.00 and then found out its starting price was $4.00 - a huge percentage difference.

Many of Damien Oliver's rides are tipped or mentioned by the media tipsters. Because Damien Oliver is widely accepted as Australia's number one jockey, his mounts are very popular with tote punters because of the media support. There are also many tote punters who will back a horse simply because Damien Oliver has the ride.

Because the tote wins on every race, unlike the bookmakers, this huge amount of uninformed money results in most of Damien Oliver's horses being poor value bets on the tote compared to the bookmakers' betting ring.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Flemington racetrack - biased track again
Damien Oliver - are his rides value bets on the tote?
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Money talks - Rosehill betting tips from the track
Money talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Money talks - Flemington, Caulfield betting tips from the track
Money talks - Doomben betting tips from the track
Money talks - Morphettville betting tips from the track
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 31/1/2003
Punt to Win index


Warning
Short Priced Tote Favourites

These are losing bets.

It is just about impossible to get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites to make up for the big unders on the tote.

If you regularly get poor tote odds you must lose.

Short priced tote favourites
are losing bets.


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