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7/2/2015 edition

Horse Racing Betting Tips

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Horse Racing Betting Tips

Creating value from short priced favourites

Whenever there are short priced horses that media tipsters think "can't lose" they usually advise an all-up mugs' bet to "create value."

For example if there are two $2.00 short priced favourites in consecutive races it is often suggested to go all up to obtain value. If both horses are paying $2.00 for the win, a $10 wager on the first horse will give you $20 when it wins. Place the $20 on the next "good thing" at $2.00 and when it wins you have turned your initial outlay of $10 into $40, which is like backing a $4.00 winner.

Sounds simple, doesn't it.

Unfortunately, in real life it doesn't work like that.

I remember some years ago when punters thought Some Are Bent was a certainty to win the Hiskens Steeplechase at Moonee Valley. I saw a punter place a $200 double (which is an all up bet) on Some Are Bent into the short priced favourite in the next race at Moonee Valley.

The problem was that $1.65 favourite Some Are Bent ran third, beaten more than 10 lengths by the upset $21.40 tote winner, Spanish Symbol.

Put simply, taking $1.65 about a jumper winning a steeple chase over 3700 metres in a field of 12 horses is absurd. When you take under the odds, which at $1.65 Some Are Bent most definitely was, it is usually impossible to "create value" by going all up with another favourite, definitely so if it's also a short priced favourite also under its true winning odds.

It's just as stupid advice as telling you to create value going all up black into red when playing roulette. Sure, if you are successful you will have turned a $10 bet into $40 and made a profit of $30. Instead of a $2.00 winner you have got $4.00.

But because you are still getting under the odds about each bet, you are on a guaranteed way of losing money long term, notwithstanding the occasional success when $10 becomes $40.

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This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting value from wagering short priced favourites
The Free Three Lengths horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips & high rated horses membership package!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 31/1/2015
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 24/1/2015 & 17/1/2015
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 17/1/2015
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present

Our tipsters have had some fantastic winning days in the past such as:

Lucky Lil's tips have found winners which win again at value:

Have a look at this:

22/11/2014: 4 horses, winners
Tina Melina $11.60
Resurrect $8.40


15/11/2014: 7 horses, winners
Wawail $9.50
Vashka $7.00
Snow White $6.00


8/11/2014: 8 horses, winners
Hucklebuck $13.00
Lord Aspen $3.80
Abaddon $2.10


4/11/2014: 12 horses, winners
Hijack Hussy $12.00
Mahara $6.00
Grand Marshal $4.40

 

On Saturday, 19th. July 2014, our tipster Lucky Lil gave 4 tips with Evangelist a fantastic winner at Rosehill with $16.00 available on track!

While First By A Nose gave 6 tips with 4 winners. They were O'Malley, $4.80 TF, Cradle Me $3.70, Aeratus $3.60 and Generalife $2.70.

On Saturday 12th. July, Lucky Lil's 3 tips at odds from $7.90 to $9.70 all missed a place, but the week before Lucky Lil's one tip Generalife won at Rosehill with $7.50 available on track!

On Saturday 12th. July First By A Nose gave 5 tips with Akavoroun, $6.90 and Atlantis Dream, $4.60, both winning. Hard Stride, $9.80, finished a close second at Flemington.

On Saturday, 23rd. November, 2013, our tipster gave followers Padrino, a $51.00 winner and the Free Ratings found a $19,048.40 First Four at Eagle Farm!!

On Saturday, 16th. November, 2013, our tipster gave followers Missing Page, $15.00 winner and Ninth Legion, $7.00 winner!

FREE Tips
PLUS FREE Top Four Ratings are available for you:

Just Register for the Forum:
Then you can access the
FREE Saturday tips plus HIGH rated horses

in the Free Saturday Horse Racing Information and Betting Tips Forum.
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Subscribe to the free Pro-Punter Newsletter for:
Free Saturday Tips, free high rated horses and more.
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2014 Melbourne Cup Day
Bookmaker Win Dividends

Horse

Get these dividends? Or these bookmaker dividends! Extra Profit $30 bet
Reparations 31.00 44.60 $408
General Groove 21.00 24.90 $117
Antelucan 11.00 14.80 $114
Protectionist 8.00 8.60 $18
Atacama 5.50 6.10 $18
Hijack Hussy 10.50 11.00 $15
Mahara 5.60 6.00 $12
Risen From Doubt 7.80 8.10 $9
Precious Gem 5.70 6.00 $9
Grand Marshal 3.70 4.00 $9


 

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