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7/2/2015 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 31st. January, 2015.

Rosehill: Track Soft.

R1 $150,000 2YO. Colts and geldings. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Favourite: Outreach
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $3.00
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Trainer: Peter & Paul Snowden
Winner: Vancouver
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.80
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R5 $85,000 3YO. Rating 72. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sarajevo
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: James McDonald
Trainer: John O'Shea

R7 $85,000 3YO & UP. Rating 85. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Georgey Aeroplane
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Sasenkile
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Serg Lisnyy
Trainer: Tony McEvoy


Doomben: Track Good.

R1 $65,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2100 metres
Number of runners: 6
Equal Favourite: Flying Home
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Damian Browne
Trainer: Barry Baldwin
Equal Favourite: Double Impact
Result: 5th.
Starting price: $3.40
Jockey: Cassandra Schmidt
Trainer: Jackie Crompton
Winner: Best Of The Rest
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Horse racing betting value from wagering short priced favourites
The Free Three Lengths horse racing betting system
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips & high rated horses membership package!
Get those betting odds
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 31/1/2015
Betting horse racing favourites in small fields: 24/1/2015 & 17/1/2015
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 60kg.
Punt to Win 17/1/2015
Punt to Win Index - 2000 to Present


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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