T Melbourne Cup Carnival: David Hayes' Flemington Horse Racing Betting Plunge
 
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8/10/2005 edition

David Hayes'
Flemington Betting Plunge

Continued from previous page

So how did punters fare backing the plunge horse I Got Chills?

As we have regularly pointed out if punters hear from the media that money has come for a horse in the bookmakers' betting ring, or see a horse firming heavily on the tote, and then back it, punters will invariably have egg on their faces, even when the horse wins.

From the three main totes the best win odds ended up being just $4.60. Tote win odds were as low as an absurd $3.70. Let's face it. What chance of long term success have you got as a punter if you take win odds of just $3.70 about a horse which had $14.00 available?

What chance of long term success have you got as a punter if you walk up to a bookmaker just before the race starts and instead of taking the $5.00 offered by the bookmaker say, "$5.00 - huh - don't be so generous. I'll take just $3.70."

The answer is Buckleys and none about a horse which had odds like $14.00 available. Or for that matter even much lower odds. If punters consistently take $3.70 tote odds about horses that start at $5.00 in the Flemington bookmakers' betting ring then they must lose money with these bets over the long term.

This edition of Punt to Win:
David Hayes' Flemington betting plunge
Get those betting odds
The "Lay the Favourite" trifecta horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick and Flemington
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 1/10/2005
Punt to Win index


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