T Melbourne Cup Carnival: David Hayes' Flemington Horse Racing Betting Plunge

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8/10/2005 edition

David Hayes'
Flemington Betting Plunge

Leading trainer David Hayes pulled off a massive betting plunge at Flemington last Saturday.

Contesting the Listed Maribyrnong Trial Stakes, a $100,000 set weights race over 1000 metres down the Flemington straight were 16 unraced two year olds.

I Got Chills was plunged from $14.00 to start at $5.00 and won. But not only did the filly win, it absolutely donkeylicked the field by 4.5 lengths!

What was really interesting is that David Hayes had three other runners in the field. None met with any significant support in the betting.

1. David Hayes had Australian international jockey Craig Williams riding Nadeem in the race. Nadeem was a $700,000 purchase at the Australian Easter Sale. Nadeem's dam won the Group 1 New Zealand Oaks. Craig Williams had also been booked by David Hayes for an additional five rides at the meeting, including the plum ride on leading Caulfield Cup chance Confectioner.

So bookies and punters initially assumed that Nadeem was the Stable's best chance in the race. In a very tight market the colt was opened at $5.00 by the bookie and as a result of the huge money for I Got Chills eased to start at $7.00.

2. David Hayes had leading Victorian rider Nicholas Ryan on the filly Permaiscuous which was passed in at $77,500, with a reserve of $90,000 at the Magic Millions Sale. Permaiscuous opened at $7.00 and drifted out to $13.00.

3. David Hayes had unheralded senior jockey John Didham on the colt Star Jester which brought $65,000 at the Melbourne Premier Sale. David Hayes was also a part owner of Star Jester. Star Jester opened at $17.00 and drifted out to $21.00.

4. What further confused the issue was that I Got Chills only fetched $45,000 at the Melbourne Premier Sale. In addition, David Hayes, also a part owner of I Got Chills did not put Craig Williams on. Rhys McLeod was the jockey. Rhys McLeod is a young, very competent Victorian senior jockey, but by no means a star.

The incorrect assumption was that I Got Chills, a relatively inexpensive purchase and the cheapest purchase of the four David Hayes' runners, had little chance of winning.

So how did punters fare backing the plunge horse I Got Chills?
Continued next page - click here

This edition of Punt to Win:
David Hayes' Flemington betting plunge
Get those betting odds
The "Lay the Favourite" trifecta horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: Randwick and Flemington
Racing results for horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 1/10/2005
Punt to Win index

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