Be honest with yourself

A very confident punter once told me that most punters are often not honest with themselves and often continue backing losing horses just hoping they will win. This punter continued that just hoping is not good enough, that you should be logical and that means you must EXPECT every bet you place to win. That if you don't EXPECT your bet to win then you shouldn't back the horse!

Fair enough - we can accept that, but only with the added proviso that the only bets you should EXPECT to win are bets you believe have a better than 50% chance of winning the race.

If you back a horse at $7.00 believing that its odds should be around $5.00 then you are not being honest with yourself or logical if you EXPECT that bet to win. You should expect over the long term that one in five of those bets will win which also means four in five will lose.