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9/2/2008 edition

Should You Expect Your Horse Racing Wager to Win?

Be honest with yourself

A very confident punter once told me that most punters are often not honest with themselves and often continue backing losing horses just hoping they will win. This punter continued that just hoping is not good enough, that you should be logical and that means you must EXPECT every bet you place to win. That if you don't EXPECT your bet to win then you shouldn't back the horse!

Fair enough - we can accept that, but only with the added proviso that the only bets you should EXPECT to win are bets you believe have a better than 50% chance of winning the race.

If you back a horse at $7.00 believing that its odds should be around $5.00 then you are not being honest with yourself or logical if you EXPECT that bet to win. You should expect over the long term that one in five of those bets will win which also means four in five will lose.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses with the statistical edge
Punters should you expect your bet to win?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Tipster Out of Step horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/2/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/1/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 2/2/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 26/1/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/1/2008
Punt to Win index


2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Distant Melody 26.00 49.90 $239
Montechoro 15.00 22.30 $73
Efficient 17.00 24.10 $71
Sculptor 21.00 24.90 $39
Partiva 21.00 24.30 $33
Count To Zero 13.00 15.70 $27


 

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  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.