Horse Racing Weight Handicapping and Betting Odds

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Rosehill - 2/2/2008
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Blessus	59kg.	8	1200	$6.00	3/8
Super Smudge	59kg.	4	1300	$5.50	3/7
Doomben - 2/2/2008
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Mr Hornblower	59kg.	4	1350	$3.30fav.	3/11
Morphettville - 2/2/2008
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Exalted Ego	59kg.	3	1800	$5.00	1/12
Randwick - 26/1/2008
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Scorched Earth	59.5kg.	4	1100	$7.00	4/9
Matchless	59kg.	1	1300	$3.20fav.	3/8
Certain Magic	59kg.	10	1400	$5.50	2/11
Strat's Flyer	59kg.	8	1400	$9.50	8/11
Rosehill - 19/1/2008
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Eremein	61kg.	5	1500	$4.00	1/6
Rosehill - 12/1/2008
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Amianan	59.5kg.	7	1500	$2.45fav.	1/8
Matchless	59.5kg.	6	1200	$5.00	4/11
Recapitalize	59kg.	2	1300	$10.00	11/12
Caulfield - 12/1/2008
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Ista Kareem	59kg.	5	2000	$8.00	4/7
Doomben - 12/1/2008
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Mitanni	61kg.	8	1200	$2.05fav.	2/8
Randwick - 5/1/2008
Horse	Weight	Barrier	Distance	SP Odds	Finish
Takeover Target	61kg.	8	1400	$2.20fav.	2/8

You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.

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	Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.



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