Horse racing and
sports betting.
 
 

Punt to Win

Pro-Punter
Horse racing forums
Swap tips and discuss betting systems and software

Qld, NT and Tasmanian punters, claim up to $502 deposit match!


Qld, NT and Tasmanian punters, claim up to a $250 bonus bet!


Join Betfair now!
Win at racing

 

 

9/2/2008 edition

Handicapping Tips
Weight and Class

We're all used to hearing "The horse has the class," to justify why a horse handicapped with a high weight should win. Similarly we're told "It's a 54 minimum. So the horse is only six kilos above the minimum."

Those sort of comments do not show an understanding of how handicaps affect most horses. The more weight, the less class a horse will have. Give a horse enough weight and it will have no class.

In a handicap, by the time horses have to carry 59kg. (60 with the safety vest), many become very dubious betting propositions at short odds. Similarly with jumpers - 70kg. (71 with the safety vest) is a very tough proposition.

The table below shows how horses that carried 59kg. or more in a handicap and were supported in the bookmakers' betting ring market - with a starting price of $11.00 or shorter - recently fared. (The safety vest is not included in the weight.) We're updating each week. It's certainly worth looking at this information over the long term.

Rosehill - 2/2/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Blessus
59kg.
8
1200
$6.00
3/8
Super Smudge
59kg.
4
1300
$5.50
3/7
Doomben - 2/2/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mr Hornblower
59kg.
4
1350
$3.30fav.
3/11
Morphettville - 2/2/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Exalted Ego
59kg.
3
1800
$5.00
1/12
Randwick - 26/1/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Scorched Earth
59.5kg.
4
1100
$7.00
4/9
Matchless
59kg.
1
1300
$3.20fav.
3/8
Certain Magic
59kg.
10
1400
$5.50
2/11
Strat's Flyer
59kg.
8
1400
$9.50
8/11
Rosehill - 19/1/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Eremein
61kg.
5
1500
$4.00
1/6
Rosehill - 12/1/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Amianan
59.5kg.
7
1500
$2.45fav.
1/8
Matchless
59.5kg.
6
1200
$5.00
4/11
Recapitalize
59kg.
2
1300
$10.00
11/12
Caulfield - 12/1/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Ista Kareem
59kg.
5
2000
$8.00
4/7
Doomben - 12/1/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Mitanni
61kg.
8
1200
$2.05fav.
2/8
Randwick - 5/1/2008
Horse
Weight
Barrier Distance
SP Odds
Finish
Takeover Target
61kg.
8
1400
$2.20fav.
2/8
 

This edition of Punt to Win:
Betting horses with the statistical edge
Punters should you expect your bet to win?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Tipster Out of Step horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 2/2/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 26/1/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 2/2/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 26/1/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/1/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


Best online bookmakers
Best online poker rooms

Copyright 1998-present. OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

Home | Contact us | Special offers | Horse racing forum | Advertise here

 
  Disclaimer: This site covers various aspects of horseracing in Australia. We provide betting tips, online gambling strategy and links to many thoroughbred sites. OZmium Pty Ltd is not responsible for the content of the links and also accepts no liability for financial loss or misadventure caused by the information provided here. We strongly recommend you bet within your budget and only with money you are prepared to risk.