Punt to Win
Horse Racing Betting Myths
"Only mug punters bet favourites"
Nothing can be further from the truth. The longshot bias in betting odds means that punters face a smaller disadvantage betting horses at the shorter end of the market.
Successful punters will back plenty of winning favourites because:
1. Form analysis will show the horse has the best
winning chances in the race plus
1. Losing punters bet favourites indiscriminately.
4. Losing punters looking for "value" use flawed logic betting favourites. Because favourites win about 30% of races these punters think that by backing favourites which are at better percentage odds than 30% they will show a profit. So they back favourites at better odds than $3.33. All that happens is the winning strike rate of these favourites adjusts downwards so backing these favourites still loses money.
5. Losing punters use loss chasing staking plans
betting favourites. If lucky, they can work for a while until the big
losing run hits wiping out all past profits and more.
This edition of Punt to Win:
2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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