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26/1/2008 edition

Horse Racing Betting Myths

"Only mug punters bet favourites"

Nothing can be further from the truth. The longshot bias in betting odds means that punters face a smaller disadvantage betting horses at the shorter end of the market.

Successful punters will back plenty of winning favourites because:

1. Form analysis will show the horse has the best winning chances in the race plus

2.
The odds available must be value in relation to the horse's winning chances. Put simply, if you're getting $2.20 about the toss of a coin, then you have a value bet.

However:

1. Losing punters bet favourites indiscriminately.

2. Losing punters do not know whether the favourite is a true favourite or false favourite.

3. Losing punters take poor value odds about favourites.

4. Losing punters looking for "value" use flawed logic betting favourites. Because favourites win about 30% of races these punters think that by backing favourites which are at better percentage odds than 30% they will show a profit. So they back favourites at better odds than $3.33. All that happens is the winning strike rate of these favourites adjusts downwards so backing these favourites still loses money.

5. Losing punters use loss chasing staking plans betting favourites. If lucky, they can work for a while until the big losing run hits wiping out all past profits and more.

6. Losing punters will often back a favourite because a favourite is "due to win".

7. Losing punters will heavily back the last favourite of the day at a meeting as a "get out" bet.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Do only losing punters bet favourites?
When a horse is odds on is it correct to look on?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Let's Win Second Up horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/1/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/1/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 19/1/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 12/1/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/1/2008
Punt to Win index


2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Distant Melody 26.00 49.90 $239
Montechoro 15.00 22.30 $73
Efficient 17.00 24.10 $71
Sculptor 21.00 24.90 $39
Partiva 21.00 24.30 $33
Count To Zero 13.00 15.70 $27


 

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