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26/1/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 19th. January.

Rosehill: Track Slow

R1 $65,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Siderus
Result: third
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Anthony Cummings
Winner: Sebring
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse

R2 $65,000 3YO and upward. Fillies & Mares. Rst90. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Stacked
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.30
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: No Name For A Lady
Starting price: $17.00
Top fluctuation: $17.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $15.60
Jockey: Peter Wells
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

R3 $65,000 3YO and upward. Rst88. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Keen Commander
Result: first

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.50
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Denise McGrath

R6 $80,000 3YO and upward. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Alverta
Result: fourth
Starting price: $2.50
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Paul Messara
Winner: Eremein
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Allan Denham


Morphettville: Track Good

R4 $30,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Changing Eyes
Result: first

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $2.15
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Peter Roff
Trainer: Richard Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Do only losing punters bet favourites?
When a horse is odds on is it correct to look on?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Let's Win Second Up horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/1/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/1/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 19/1/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 12/1/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/1/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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