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12/1/2008 edition

Fifteen Horse Racing Betting Tips

1. Don't bet on horses that have a series of failures. Don't look for reversals from this.

2. Bet on good horses fresh at a reasonable price.

3. Young horses have the freshest legs.

4. Most horses probably only have one or two good seasons. The further away the horse is from that good season the less likely the horse is to win.

5. Look for a horse that has done well recently but might have finished out of a place last start and so be at decent odds.

6. Don't chase the big odds runners unless you know what you are doing.

7. Don't dismiss short odds chances - there is more "value" there than you think.

8. It might take a lot less work (and a lot less stress) to make a profit out of horses under $3.00 than horses over that price. It certainly is possible to make money out of the longer odds horses - but some punters might find it much easier and less stressful to concentrate on the favourites. You still need to do your analysis and work but it is easier to find the value if you concentrate on th etrue favourites. A 60% strike rate - yes, it is achievable - is better for the heart than a 10% strike rate.

9. Never rely on a loss chasing staking plan to make a profit.

10. Some people think horse/jockey combinations are overrated but it is possible to have some great results looking at win/place percentages. with certain horses and jockeys.

11. Never change your tips when you go to the track, unless there is a major reason to do so.

12. Never let the price of a horse change your thinking. If you think it is a good chance and it's at long odds, then all the better for you.

13. Class is the key. Research into what you consider are false pre-race favourites by looking at the class of the horses and you'll find good value.

14. Finishing lengths are important. More important than a second, third or fourth. Often horses get under the guard of punters when they run a close up seventh or a close up tenth.

15. If the horse is at much longer odds than expecterd and you can't figure out why, the horse invariably will run up to the market price. This means there is some other reason which the people who matter are aware of such as a fitness problem which has caused the horse to miss work which has been kept away from the public. But if you know why the market doesn't like the horse and you don't see that as a problem then by all means back your judgment.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Fifteen horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Consistent Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/1/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/12/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/12/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 5/1/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 29/12/2007 & 22/12/2007
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 22/12/2007
Punt to Win index


2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Distant Melody 26.00 49.90 $239
Montechoro 15.00 22.30 $73
Efficient 17.00 24.10 $71
Sculptor 21.00 24.90 $39
Partiva 21.00 24.30 $33
Count To Zero 13.00 15.70 $27


 

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