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12/1/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 29th. December.

Rosehill Track Good

R1 $25,000 Rst66. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Why're You Waiting
Result: second
Starting price: $1.60
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Baadi Blasted
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.30
Jockey: Daniel Edmonds
Trainer: Greg McFarlane

R2 $50,000 3YO and upward. Rst88. Handicap.
Distance: 1900 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Guillotine
Result: first

Starting price: $1.26
Top fluctuation: $1.28
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.30
Jockey: Jim Bowman
Trainer: David Payne

R3 $50,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Rock Me Baby
Result: first

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Jeff Lloyd
Trainer: David Payne

R5 $25,000 3YO and upward. Maiden. Set weights.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Camouflaged
Result: fifth
Starting price: $1.80
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Chris Waller
Winner: Treat
Starting price: $9.00
Top fluctuation: $10.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.90
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Bob Thomsen

R7 $10,000 3YO and upward. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Miss Pageantry
Result: second
Starting price: $1.30
Jockey: Larry Cassidy
Trainer: Gwenda Markwell
Winner: Party Crasher
Starting price: $4.60
Top fluctuation: $6.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.60
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse


Moonee Valley: Track Slow (R1-4); Dead (R5-8.)

R2 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Equal Favourite: All American
Result: first

Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.00
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: David Hayes
Equal Favourite: Joyful Warrior
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.20
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes

R4 $54,000 Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 3000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Horseshoe Reef
Result: third
Starting price: $3.30
Jockey: Jason Benbow
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Lapse
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Heath Conners

This edition of Punt to Win:
Fifteen horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Consistent Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/1/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/12/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/12/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 5/1/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 29/12/2007 & 22/12/2007
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 22/12/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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