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22/12/2007 edition

"This Horse is a Certainty.
Nothing Else Can Win"

How often do we hear something like, "This horse is a moral. Nothing else can win," or "This race is a match race," or "There are only three horses that can win this race."

Unfortunately, too often.

Don't fall for it. Looking at races like that will make you take poor odds about those horses you back and guarantee you are a long term loser. The only race that has just two winning chances is a two horse race. The only race that has three winning chances is a three horse race. And there aren't too many of them around!

I recall listening to a radio horse racing tipping show. The tipster panel was discussing the horses' chances in a 1000 metres Open Handicap held at Moonee Valley. Six of the 13 runners were resuming from a spell. The race in my opinion was an absolute raffle.

Yet that morning one of the tipping panel, said something along the lines of, "There are only three winning chances. I can't see anything else winning," and then went on to name those "three winning chances."

Where did those three horses finish? First, second and third? Wrong. One of them won though? Wrong again. Then two of them ran second and third? Wrong, yet again. They finished seventh, ninth and tenth!

You would really think the media horse racing tipster should have realised that more than just three horses had a chance of winning that race.

This edition of Punt to Win:
"This horse is a certainty. Nothing else can win."
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Tipster Long Shot horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/12/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/12/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/12/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 15/12/2007
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 8/12/2007 & 1/12/2007
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 1/12/2007
Punt to Win index

2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds


Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Distant Melody 26.00 49.90 $239
Montechoro 15.00 22.30 $73
Efficient 17.00 24.10 $71
Sculptor 21.00 24.90 $39
Partiva 21.00 24.30 $33
Count To Zero 13.00 15.70 $27


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