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22/12/2007 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 8th. December.

Caulfield: Track Good

R1 $56,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Lectrice
Result: first

Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctuation: $2.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Mick Price

R2 $56,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Mojo Pin
Result: fourth
Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Brian Mayfield-Smith
Winner: Tremezzo
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Mick Price


Doomben: Track Dead

R1 $50,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1010 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Presley
Result: first

Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.70
Jockey: Jim Byrne
Trainer: Mark F. Webb

R2 $50,000 3YO. Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1010 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Cardio
Result: second
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Ken Pope
Trainer: Trevor Miller
Winner: Qualosun
Starting price: $17.00
Top fluctuation: $17.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $24.60
Jockey: Ric McMahon
Trainer: Bryan Guy


Cheltenham: Track Good

R1 $20,000 3YO. Rs2mw. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Chirac
Result: first

Starting price: $2.40
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.40
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Phillip Stokes

This edition of Punt to Win:
"This horse is a certainty. Nothing else can win."
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Tipster Long Shot horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 15/12/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 8/12/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 1/12/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 15/12/2007
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 8/12/2007 & 1/12/2007
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 1/12/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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