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12/1/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 22nd. December.

Randwick: Track Dead

R2 $50,000 3YO and upward. Rst96. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Commemorating
Result: first

Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.30
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.20
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Bede Murray

R4 $100,000 3YO and upward. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Takeover Target
Result: first

Starting price: $1.95
Top fluctuation: $1.95
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Jay Ford
Trainer: Joe Janiak

R5 $50,000 3YO. Rst85. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Lieserl
Result: sixth
Starting price: $3.70
Jockey: Nash Rawiller
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Winner: Kick 'N' Chase
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $7.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $6.60
Jockey: Peter Robl
Trainer: Clarry Conners


Sandown Hillside: Track Heavy

R1 $56,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Savquaw
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.20
Jockey: Danny Nikolic
Trainer: Peter Gelagotis
Winner: Eightforall
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $8.30
Jockey: Peter Mertens
Trainer: Chris Parry

R2 $56,000 3YO Fillies. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Stratella
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.10
Top fluctuation: $3.10
Jockey: James Winks
Trainer: Danny O'Brien
Winner: Causeway Queen
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctuation: $11.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $13.20
Jockey: Daniel Moor
Trainer: Tony Vasil

R3 $56,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Sensational Toy
Result: first

Starting price: $1.90
Top fluctuation: $2.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Luke Oliver

R5 $56,000 Rst82. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: four
Favourite: Majestic Arch
Result: fourth
Starting price: $1.50
Top fluctuation: $1.50
Jockey: Garry Murphy
Trainer: Graeme Hicks
Winner: Pulse Maker
Starting price: $13.00
Top fluctuation: $13.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $9.00
Jockey: Michael Carson
Trainer: David Cave

R6 $56,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1300 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Free The Robber
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.80
Top fluctuation: $2.80
Jockey: William Hernan
Trainer: Terry & Karina O'Sullivan
Winner: Roadhog
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.10
Jockey: Peter Mertens
Trainer: Bart Cummings

R7 $56,000 Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Spin Queen
Result: third
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.60
Jockey: Dale Smith
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Pedrillo
Starting price: $14.00
Top fluctuation: $14.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $14.00
Jockey: Vlad Duric
Trainer: James Moloney

R8 $56,000 Rst89. Handicap.
Distance: 1800 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Drizzle
Result: second
Starting price: $3.30
Top fluctuation: $3.30
Jockey: Vlad Duric
Trainer: Gary Sherer
Winner: Itstheone
Starting price: $3.90
Top fluctuation: $3.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Sebastian Murphy
Trainer: Lee Freedman


Eagle Farm: Track Good

R1 $50,000 2YO. Open. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Flash Romeo
Result: seventh
Starting price: $2.80
Jockey: Glen Colless
Trainer: Robert Heathcote
Winner: Astatus
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $3.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Ken Pope
Trainer: Mick Mair


Morphettville: Track Dead

R1 $20,000 Fillies & Mares. Rst94. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Lady Branax
Result: first

Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.90
Jockey: Jason Holder
Trainer: David Balfour

This edition of Punt to Win:
Fifteen horse racing betting tips
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Consistent Winners horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 5/1/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 29/12/2007
Betting favourites in small fields: 22/12/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 5/1/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 29/12/2007 & 22/12/2007
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 22/12/2007
Punt to Win 22/12/2007
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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