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26/1/2008 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, 12th. January.

Rosehill: Track Good

R1 $65,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Belle Soleil
Result: first

Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.10
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Trainer: Gary Portelli


Caulfield: Track Good

R1 $56,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Tremezzo
Result: second
Starting price: $2.70
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Mick Price
Winner: Our Spur
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctuation: $5.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.90
Jockey: Darren Gauci
Trainer: David Racovolis

R4 $100,000 Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cocinero
Result: fifth
Starting price: $3.70
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths
Winner: Cargo Cult
Starting price: $6.50
Top fluctuation: $6.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $5.70
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Trainer: Jarrod McLean

R5 $100,000 Group 3. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Here De Angels
Result: first

Starting price: $1.80
Top fluctuation: $1.90
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.80
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Lee Freedman


Doomben: Track Dead

R1 $50,000 2YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1110 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Feisty Manner
Result: first

Starting price: $3.50
Top fluctuation: $3.50
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.60
Jockey: Manabu Kai
Trainer: Steven Ryan


Morphettville: Track Good

R1 $30,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2600 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Royal Player
Result: third
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Heather Frew
Winner: Knock Knock
Starting price: $3.20
Top fluctuation: $3.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Dominic Tourneur
Trainer: Michael O'Leary

R3 $15,000 3YO. Class 1. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Nixie's New Shoes
Result: second
Starting price: $2.10
Jockey: Clare Lindop
Trainer: Leon Macdonald
Winner: Our Parfumee
Starting price: $3.80
Top fluctuation: $4.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.00
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Do only losing punters bet favourites?
When a horse is odds on is it correct to look on?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Let's Win Second Up horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/1/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/1/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 19/1/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 12/1/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/1/2008
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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