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26/1/2008 edition

Horse Racing Betting Myths

"Odds on look on"

This betting myth is based on the assumption that if a horse is odds on then it's "no value" so should not be backed and also that you don't back against a horse that is odds on because it's a "good thing", even though it's no "value".

Talk about a contradiction!!

Basically this betting myth assumes that if a horse is odds on the punter has no way of assessing whether or not the odds are real value.

Horses that are odds on can be backed with confidence with correct form analysis. For example a great horse like Lonhro regularly won when it was odds on. In fact when bookies were offering $1.60 and $1.70 about Lonhro, it was often a true $1.30 and $1.40 chance!

When playing trifectas and first fours horses that are odds on wreck tote dividends. One reason is because so many punters follow the incorrect advice regularly given to them in the racing media and take the horse in a trifecta or first four to "get value".

It's impossible to create value in a betting pool which has around 20% deductions by basing your betting around the same short priced tote horse as just about every other bettor.

If you use a horse that is odds on your only chance is to basically include horses with flukers' chances of running a place. If you include the horses that on paper look most likely of placing then should you collect with these horses your payout will be big unders, very big unders. It certainly won't be "value".

This edition of Punt to Win:
Do only losing punters bet favourites?
When a horse is odds on is it correct to look on?
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
Get those betting odds
The Let's Win Second Up horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields: 19/1/2008
Betting favourites in small fields: 12/1/2008
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 19/1/2008
Plunge horses - betting tips from the track: 12/1/2008
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 12/1/2008
Punt to Win index


2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
Best Tote Odds

Horse

Get these prices? Or these prices!! Extra Profit $10 bet
Distant Melody 26.00 49.90 $239
Montechoro 15.00 22.30 $73
Efficient 17.00 24.10 $71
Sculptor 21.00 24.90 $39
Partiva 21.00 24.30 $33
Count To Zero 13.00 15.70 $27


 

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