Punt to Win
Horse Racing Betting Myths
"Odds on look on"
This betting myth is based on the assumption that if a horse is odds on then it's "no value" so should not be backed and also that you don't back against a horse that is odds on because it's a "good thing", even though it's no "value".
Talk about a contradiction!!
Basically this betting myth assumes that if a horse is odds on the punter has no way of assessing whether or not the odds are real value.
Horses that are odds on can be backed with confidence with correct form analysis. For example a great horse like Lonhro regularly won when it was odds on. In fact when bookies were offering $1.60 and $1.70 about Lonhro, it was often a true $1.30 and $1.40 chance!
When playing trifectas and first fours horses that are odds on wreck tote dividends. One reason is because so many punters follow the incorrect advice regularly given to them in the racing media and take the horse in a trifecta or first four to "get value".
It's impossible to create value in a betting pool which has around 20% deductions by basing your betting around the same short priced tote horse as just about every other bettor.
If you use a horse that is odds on your only chance is to basically include horses with flukers' chances of running a place. If you include the horses that on paper look most likely of placing then should you collect with these horses your payout will be big unders, very big unders. It certainly won't be "value".
This edition of Punt to Win:
2007 Melbourne Cup Carnival Winners
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