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10/2/2007
edition
Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields
There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about
favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on
a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne,
Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.
When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details
of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example
if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer
odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than
they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate
on favourites in small fields? And so on.
The results should prove quite interesting.
Here are the results from Saturday, 3rd. February.
Rosehill: Track Good
R2 $65,000 3YO Class 4. Handicap.
Distance: 1500 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Ruling Power
Result: second
Starting price: $3.70
Top fluctuation: $3.70
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: Bart Cummings
Winner: Buzzy Henry
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $4.40
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
R3 $65,000 3YO and upward. 0 - 93 Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Amianan
Result: first
Starting price: $1.75
Top fluctuation: $1.75
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.00
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
R6 $65,000 3YO and upward. Class 3. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Hoystar
Result: first
Starting price: $1.30
Top fluctuation: $1.40
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.40
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes
Moonee Valley: Track Good
Lightning Stakes Day
R1 $100,000 2YO. Listed. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Sleek Chassis
Result: first
Starting price: $1.65
Top fluctuation: $1.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.50
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: David Hayes
R3 $200,000 3YO Colts & Geldings. Group 3. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Excites
Result: fifth
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $2.70
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Trainer: Paul Perry
Winner: Wordsmith
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctuation: $8.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $7.50
Jockey: Steven King
Trainer: Shane Nichols
R5 $75,000 Mares. Set weights with penalties.
Distance: 1514 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Like It Is
Result: first
Starting price: $2.60
Top fluctuation: $2.70
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Craig Williams
Trainer: Darren Weir
R8 $75,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 2040 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Field Hunter
Result: first
Starting price: $3.40
Top fluctuation: $4.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Sue Murphy
Trainer: Darren Weir
Morphetville: Track Good
R1 $24,000 3YO. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1050 metres
Number of runners: five
Favourite: Trictrac
Result: first
Starting price: $2.20
Top fluctuation: $2.20
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.90
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: David Hayes
This edition of Punt to Win:
Learn from this betting advice
The best horse racing tipping service on the internet
Get those betting odds
The Bunched Finish horse racing betting system
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Betting favourites in small fields - 27/1/2007
Betting favourites in small fields - 3/2/2007
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting tips from the track: 27/1/2007: Rosehill & Sandown Hillside
Betting tips from the track: 3/2/2007: Rosehill & Moonee Valley
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 27/1/2007
Punt to Win index
You
Need Top Odds
It's unlikely you'll get a high enough
strike rate backing short priced tote favourites
and poor value tote horses to make up for
big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.
If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.
It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short
priced tote favourites.
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reserved.
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