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10/9/2011 edition

Betting Horse Racing Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in our forum over the years about favourites in small fields. So we've been monitoring favourites in small fields here. We're now looking at Saturday races in the three strongest horse racing cities of Melbourne, famous for the Melbourne Cup, Sydney, where the 2YO Golden Slipper Stakes grabs the racing headlines and Brisbane where the Doomben 10,000 is a famous feature horse race.

Most races in these cities have a field size of more than seven horses, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the field size is just seven or fewer horses.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse race fields on Saturday, 3rd. September, 2011.

Warwick Farm: Track Good.

R1 $70,000 3YO & UP. Rating 80. Handicap.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Sienna Red
Result: 2nd.
Starting price: $2.40
Jockey: Corey Brown
Trainer: Joseph Pride
Winner: Thumbtacks
Starting price: $4.00
Top fluctuation: $4.60
SuperTab tote dividend: $3.50
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Trainer: Chris Waller


Eagle Farm: Track Dead.

R1 $50,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Anyways
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctuation: $3.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $2.60
Jockey: Chris Munce
Trainer: Kelso Wood


Here are the results for punters betting favourites in small horse racing fields on Saturday, 27th. August, 2011.

Rosehill: Track Dead.

R5 $125,000 3YO. Group 3. Set weights and penalties.
Distance: 1200 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: Smart Missile
Result: 1st.

Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctuation: $1.80
SuperTab tote dividend: $1.60
Jockey: Glen Boss
Trainer: Anthony Cummings


Caulfield: Track Good.

R2 $70,000 Mares. Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1100 metres
Number of runners: 7
Favourite: La Praline
Result: 4th.
Starting price: $1.75
Jockey: Luke Nolen
Trainer: Peter G. Moody
Winner: Miss Bindi
Starting price: $12.00
Top fluctuation: $12.00
SuperTab tote dividend: $13.10
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Trainer: Colin & Cindy Alderson

This edition of Punt to Win:
Beware these horse racing betting system & selection wagering strategies
The Professional Punter's horse racing news
The High Strike Rate Place Betting horse racing betting system
Horse racing form analysis and betting system tips
Horse Watch betting system - future winners
Free horse racing betting tips package membership!
Get those betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields: 3/9/2011 & 27/8/2011
Betting favourites in small fields: 20/8/2011
Best odds for well bet winners - bookmaker or tote?
Betting top weights - horses carrying a weight handicap of 59kg.
Punt to Win 20/8/2011
Punt to Win index


You Need Top Odds

It's unlikely you'll get a high enough strike rate backing short priced tote favourites and poor value tote horses to make up for big unders on the tote. Especially in Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan racing on Saturdays.

If you regularly get poor odds you increase your chances of losing money.

It's very unlikely you'll make a long term profit by consistently backing short priced tote favourites.


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