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10/10/2003 edition

Betting Favourites
in
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, October 4.

Randwick: Track Good
R2 $50,000 4YO and upward. Sc1ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Before Too Long
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 2.3 lengths
Starting price: $2.00
Top fluctation: $2.20
Tote dividends' range: $1.80 - $1.80
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Trainer: Gary Portelli

Doomben: Track Dead
R1 $24,000 Rs0ly. Handicap.
Distance: 1020 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Masindor
Result: third
Winning/losing margin: 1.4 lengths
Starting price: $2.70
Top fluctation: $2.70
Jockey: Michael McDonald
Trainer: Doug Duryea
Winner: Avon Jewel
Winning/losing margin: 1.3 lengths
Starting price: $11.00
Top fluctation: $11.00
Tote dividends' range: $10.80 - $12.70
Jockey: Mitchell Rice
Trainer: Harry Richardson

R2 $24,000 Class 6. Handicap.
Distance: 1640 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Sea Artist
Result: second
Winning/losing margin: short neck
Starting price: $2.30
Top fluctation: $2.40
Jockey: Stathi Katsidis
Trainer: Troy Hall
Winner: Scenic Wells
Winning/losing margin: short neck
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctation: $4.20
Tote dividends' range: $4.90 - $5.70
Jockey: Neil Jolly
Trainer: Craig Brown

Cheltenham: Track Good
R1 $20,000 3YO and upward. Rs2ly. Handicap.
Distance: 2250 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Cezante
Result: fourth
Winning/losing margin: 1.5 lengths
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctation: $1.70
Jockey: Matthew Neilson
Trainer: Richard Jolly
Winner: Blue Chequer
Winning/losing margin: 0.8 lengths
Starting price: $31.00
Top fluctation: $41.00
Tote dividends' range: $20.40 - $22.40
Jockey: Justin Potter
Trainer: David Halliday

R3 $24,000 Open. Handicap.
Distance: 1000 metres
Number of runners: six
Favourite: Kolase
Result: fourth
Winning/losing margin: 1.8 lengths
Starting price: $4.20
Top fluctation: $4.20
Jockey: Paul Gatt
Trainer: Barry Dunn
Winner: Cubiton
Winning/losing margin: neck
Starting price: $5.00
Top fluctation: $5.50
Tote dividends' range: $3.80 - $4.00
Jockey: Nozi Tomizawa
Trainer: Peter Jolly

This edition of Punt to Win:
Carnival betting tips
Trainer/jockey strike rates
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Money talks - Flemington betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 3/10/2003
Punt to Win index


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If you regularly get poor odds you must lose.

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