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3/10/2003 edition

Lonhro Brilliant Win

Will Lonhro win the Cox Plate?

This John Hawkes trained 5YO Octagonal horse easily won the Group 1 Weight for Age George Main Stakes at Randwick last Saturday over 1600 metres. It was the 5YO's twenty first win from 28 starts, yet there are still detractors not prepared to admit the horse is a champion.

Grand Armee, who is being aimed at the Caulfield Cup, finished second, 2.5 lengths behind Lonhro. Defier, who like Lonhro is being aimed at the Cox Plate, finished third, nearly four lengths behind Lonhro.

Defier's trainer Guy Walter is more than optimistic if he believes Defier is a realistic show to topple Lonhro in the Cox Plate. Defier is not getting any better. Lonhro has come back a tougher and improved horse and will be at his peak come Cox Plate Day.

Of course, the Cox Plate is a high pressure race, unlike Saturday's George Main Stakes which was run at a leisurely tempo. They didn't start a sprint for home with 1000 metres to go.

Possibly the biggest threat to Lonhro in the Cox Plate could come from one of the overseas contingent.

The English galloper Falbrav, may possibly come here in preference to America's Breeders' Cup Turf, where he is favourite. Falrav has won seven Group 1 races including last year's Japan Cup and has dominated European Weight for Age racing this year. Falrav is also a better horse than Godolphin's Grandera, which came here with a huge reputation last year and finished third in the Cox Plate behind Northerly and Defier.

This edition of Punt to Win:
Will Lonhro win the Cox Plate?
"Only mugs back favourites"
"Odds on look on"
Betting tips - strike rates, betting odds
Gai Waterhouse - punters beware
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/9/2003
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