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3/10/2003 edition

Betting Favourites
Small Fields

There has been quite a lot of discussion in the forum about favourites in small fields. So we thought we'd start monitoring them on a regular basis. We'll concentrate on Saturday races in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide where the field size has seven or fewer runners.

When a favourite is beaten we will also provide details of the winner. If there are trends they will be identified. For example if a stable has two runners in the small field does the horse at longer odds win more often than it should? Do some jockeys lose more often than they should on the favourites? Do some stables have a poor strike rate on favourites in small fields? And so on.

The results should prove quite interesting.

Here are the results from Saturday, September 27.

Randwick: Track Good
R2 $75,000 3YO Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 2000 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Square One
Result: fourth
Winning/losing margin: 1.7 lengths
Starting price: $3.00
Top fluctation: $3.00
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Trainer: Graham Begg
Winner: Al Jameel
Winning margin: 0.7 lengths
Starting price: $7.00
Top fluctation: $7.00
Tote dividends' range: $6.50 - $7.10
Jockey: Danny Beasley
Trainer: Graeme Rogerson

R3 $70,000 3YO Fillies. Listed. Handicap.
Distance: 1400 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Santissima
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 2 lengths
Starting price: $2.50
Top fluctation: $2.60
Tote dividends' range: $2.30 - $2.40
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes

R6 $350,000 3YO and upward. Group 1. Weight for Age.
Distance: 1600 metres
Number of runners: seven
Favourite: Lonhro
Result: first
Winning/losing margin: 2.5 lengths
Starting price: $1.70
Top fluctation: $1.70
Tote dividends' range: $1.50 - $1.60
Jockey: Darren Beadman
Trainer: John Hawkes

This edition of Punt to Win:
Will Lonhro win the Cox Plate?
"Only mugs back favourites"
"Odds on look on"
Betting tips - strike rates, betting odds
Gai Waterhouse - punters beware
Spring Carnival horses - good runs, good betting odds
Betting favourites in small fields
Money talks - Randwick betting tips from the track
Handicapping tips - weight and class
Future winners - unlucky horses
Punt to Win 26/9/2003
Punt to Win index

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